The Arab Spring caused occupancy levels in the UAE and Abu Dhabi during Q3 to improve compared to the same period last year although rates remained under pressure and declined by 16.7 percent during the month of August relative to the same month in 2010.
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The positive trend from Q2 continued in Q3 as RevPAR levels in Dubai during the month of July increased by 22.8 percent to AED 464 compared to the same period last year.
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A number of Sharjah’s hotels managed to achieve higher RevPAR levels during the first 9 months of 2011 relative to the same period last year due to substantial spill-over demand from Dubai.
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The hotel market in Bahrain continued to face tough market conditions triggered by the political unrest earlier this year as evidenced by a 60 percent decline in revenues during the first 8 months of 2011 compared to the same period last year.
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KSA outperformed most other countries in terms of RevPAR growth during the month of August which coincided with the holy month of Ramadan.
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Whilst year to date hotel performance declined relative to 2010, new hotel deals have been announced by reputable international operators such as Ascott and Louis Vuitton.
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Despite significant projected supply in the Qatar hotel market, OCC, ADR and RevPAR appear stable as visitor numbers indicate growth.
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Apartment rents continued to decline in Abu Dhabi during the third quarter whilst villas, especially the ones located on Abu Dhabi Island, remained relatively stable.
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Rental and sales rates for villas proved to be more stable than apartments during the third quarter of 2011 as the bulk of the new residential supply comprised apartments.
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Whilst Sharjah continued to face declining rental values for apartments and villas of 5 and 4 percent respectively, rates in other Northern Emirates remained relatively stable during the third quarter of 2011.
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To avoid further unrest and to (partly) fulfill protestor’s demands, the Bahraini government plans to provide approximately 50,000 social housing units over the next three years.
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The Saudi government showed commitment to residential areas in Jeddah and Riyadh suffering from insufficient waste water and sewerage networks through its SAR 10 billion fund dedicated to solving these infrastructural issues.
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Given a positive outlook of the Omani economy coupled with a continuous inflow and increased size of the country’s expatriate workforce, demand for residential real estate is anticipated to rise.
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As reported in the previous quarter and due to slowing supply, the residential real estate market appears stable.
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Malls located on Abu Dhabi Island were able to sustain their lease rates during the third quarter of 2011 whilst the Capital added Mushrif Mall to its retail growing retail offering.
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Given the political instability in countries such as Egypt and Syria, visitor numbers to Dubai were higher than anticipated which subsequently impacted retailer's revenues positively.
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The construction of MAF's Fujairah City Centre makes good progress and is expected to open in 2012.
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The development of the Capital Trade Centre, a large scale mixed-use development in Manama with a significant retail component, has been confirmed and is now slated for completion in 2017.
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Vacancy rates increased slightly whist Jeddah's retail market is expected to become more tenant friendly given the city's pipeline of upcoming retail developments
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Muscat's retail environment is expected to become more tenant friendly in the near term as more retail developments are being completed.
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Although the market appears oversupplied in terms of new mall developments, retail demand appears to shift to new developments.
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The outlook on the office market in Abu Dhabi remains bearish as additional supply continues to put rates and occupancy levels under pressure.
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Rental values in the office market in Dubai will remain under pressure as additional stock is added to an already oversupplied market whilst vacancy levels exceed the 50 percent mark in certain districts.
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Office lease rates in Sharjah experienced an average decline of approximately 6 percent during the third quarter of 2011.
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PKF is bearish on the office real estate market in Bahrain in the short to mid-term driven by continued uncertainty with regard to the political environment coupled with anticipated additional supply in a stagnant market.
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With significant future office supply in the pipeline, lease rates in both Jeddah and Riyadh will remain under pressure.
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Office developments to be completed by the end of 2011 comprise a significant supply of Grade A space which is anticipated to add additional pressure on lease rates.
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Continuing from the previous quarter, the performance of Qatar's office market remains under pressure, driven by supply, which may soften the future outlook of the commercial real estate sector.
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